Back with a Bang: BJP workers and supporters after the party’s big win in the 2025 elections| Photo: Tribhuvan Tiwari Back with a Bang: BJP workers and supporters after the party’s big win in the 2025 elections| Photo: Tribhuvan Tiwari Overnightgoplay, former Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s face, with that laconic smile, is off from all bus stops, behind the auto rickshaws and hoardings in Delhi. When the BJP wants to erase an opponent’s presence from a city, it can be very swift. And why not? The BJP has been spoiling for this fight for nearly three decades. Finally, when victory comes in this bombastic fashion, the repercussions will have to be swift.
But has the idea of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), as all its leaders never tire of insisting, and the brand of politics of Kejriwal been completely extinguished? The party will rue the fact that it is the only one ever to lose an election with a vote share of 43.55 per cent. It is a big 10 per cent drop from the party’s sweep in 2020 but for such an emphatic win by the BJP (45.76 per cent), the difference is only a little over two per cent. But these are ballpark numbers. A close look at vote shares in different constituencies is more revealing.
The youngster displayed goalkeeping masterclass in the shoot-out, saving all four of Pakistan’s attempts after the match was drawn 1-1 in regulation time.
Kejriwal’s AAP saw a sharp decline in vote share across key demographics, particularly among Dalit and Muslim voters. In the SC-reserved constituencies, its vote share dropped by 15-20 per cent. In areas where AAP had previously tasted easy victories, such as Seemapuri and Karol Bagh, the party’s vote share fell from over 60 per cent in 2020 to below 50 per cent in 2025. More concerning for AAP was its defeat in Bawana, Madipur and Mangolpuri—seats it had dominated in the previous elections. In these areas, the BJP was not only able to consolidate its own vote bank but also attract swing voters.
According to Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder-director of C-Voter, the middle class was the “pendulum vote bank” in this election, and they swung towards the BJP given AAP’s image problems after the corruption charges. Further, by AAP’s own admission, they had been unable to deliver on many of their welfare schemes, which left the middle class upset.
online slots free spinsThe BJP’s statements—that it would continue AAP’s welfare schemes alongside the tax benefits it announced in the 2025 Union Budget—seem to have found many takers. “The middle class was upset but the budget appears to have given them a reason to come out and that converted into a large vote share for the BJP. There are multiple layers to that. The campaign by the BJP was meticulous in that sense,” says Deshmukh.
Kejriwal To Meet Punjab CM Mann, State Ministers And AAP MLAs After Loss In Delhi Elections 2025 | What We KnowAAP was faced with setbacks in Muslim-dominated areas and with its SC-voter base as well. It managed to retain six out of seven such constituencies—its vote share in Mustafabad saw a 20-point decline from 53.2 per cent to just 33 per cent. The entry of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and a resurgent Congress further divided Muslim votes in Okhla—AAP’s vote share fell by 24 per cent, AIMIM and Congress gained at its expense.
(This appeared in the print as 'BJP’s Delhiverance')
The middle class was the “pendulum vote bank” in this election, and they swung towards the BJP.Among the SC-reserved constituencies—traditionally AAP strongholds—the BJP won a third of the seats—four out of 12. Among OBC candidates, 16 out of 22 BJP nominees were victorious. The party also gained some traction with the Purvanchali voters, a crucial electoral demographic in Delhi. In 35 constituencies with over 15 per cent Purvanchali voters, the BJP won 25 seats.
Post-facto analysis is always easy, but was the Congress and the AAP—both part of the India Bloc—not coming together to fight the Delhi elections a mistake? The Congress failed to win any seats on its own, but managed to cut the votes of AAP—in 14 constituencies, the combined votes of AAP and Congress were more than that of the BJP.
Despite facing several corruption cases, jail time and vacating the chief minister’s chair, Kejriwal was a relentless campaigner during the 2025 elections. In the initial months of campaigning, the BJP top cadre was preoccupied with elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. This is when Kejriwal consolidated his voter base. By the time the election dates were announced, AAP had already declared most of its candidates, while the BJP delayed its list,bw777 login adding to perceptions of disarray.
While two weeks before voting, it seemed like AAP had the momentum to win Delhi elections for the third term, political analyst Amitabh Tiwari says the cracks had already begun to surface. “AAP depends on borrowed votes. Its vote base in Delhi is very less—20 to 25 per cent—whereas the BJP’s is 35 per cent. What AAP does is that it borrows the Lok Sabha voters of Congress and the BJP in the Assembly elections. But, on its own, in these 10 years, AAP has not been able to expand its base despite being 10 years in power,” he says.
While the main fight was between the BJP and the AAP, Congress also provided a challenge to Kejriwal’s party.AAP had eroded Congress’ voter base in 2015 and 2020, so Congress leaders took on a strong offensive this year. They targeted Kejriwal and other AAP top brass for the corruption cases against them, with Ajay Maken calling him “Farjiwal.” The INC split the anti-BJP vote in Timarpur, Badli, and Jungpura, helping the rise of the BJP.
The attack by the Congress, along with the anti-incumbency sentiment against AAP, coupled with corruption allegations such as the liquor scam and the “Sheesh Mahal” controversy, meant that AAP, too, knew they were not contesting this election on their best foot. In 2013, AAP’s anti-corruption narrative defined the election, while the 2025 campaign was marked by Kejriwal struggling to counter the BJP’s focus on governance and development. “The minority votes were affected by the Congress and that took away about 5-10 per cent of the minority vote,” says Tiwari.
The voters, it would appear, were also fatigued by AAP’s narrative of “complaints”, say analysts. The AAP, by its own admission, had not managed to get any of its welfare schemes off the ground. While Kejriwal placed much of the blame for this on the Lieutenant Governor’s (LG) feet, it has backfired, says Arun Kumar, former professor at JNU and the Malcolm Adiseshiah Chair Professor at the Institute of Social Sciences in New Delhi. “What the BJP has done is that they’ve made it very clear that Delhi is not going to get the benefits unless the Centre and state have the same government. Therefore, people decided that they need the Centre and state to be on the same page if they are to get any benefits,” he reasons.
Decoding The Delhi Election Results | Outlook TalksThe BJP regained some of the confidence that it lost in the Lok Sabha election after its victories in the Assembly elections of Haryana and Maharashtra, which were led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi branded AAP the “AAPda” (disaster), and led an aggressive letter-writing campaign to Delhi’s electorate. The BJP leaders held massive rallies across the capital city to galvanise their cadre and shift the mood of the party workers and floating voters. The party also assured voters that existing welfare schemes, including free electricity and water, would not be discontinued—knocking the wind out of AAP’s strongest appeal.
Nowgoplay, with the so-called double engine—BJP governments both in the state and the Centre—the BJP will have to show some quick results to Delhi’s middle class which has trusted them to improve the city’s infrastructure. While Delhi’s pollution was the main topic of discussion in the cocktail circuits, no party had it as a serious issue in their manifestoes. The BJP will have to make sure the direct benefit transfers work on the ground, the city’s traffic situation is eased and the Yamuna is made to look like a river again rather than a drain. Whoever is chosen as the next chief minister, they will join Delhi’s rush hour running.